In the IEEE 802 EC Privacy Recommendation Study Group there were
some disagreements discussions about how likely two stations choosing a MAC address at random would be
to collide.
Because of the Birthday paradox the
probability is much higher than most people (including myself) would expect, even when the many bits are randomized.
In order to allow participants to get a better feel for this (and quickly settle arguments!) I decided to make a toy
app engine app to calculate the probabilities. This is based on some C code by Dan Harkins.